UNOFFICIAL EDITORIAL PROJECTION — NOT NCAA SELECTIONS

FCS Bracketology

Illustrative 24-team playoff field Games completed through October 21, 2026

FIRST ROUND
Provost Umphrey Stadium · Beaumont, Texas
SECOND ROUND
Winner of Lamar / Monmouth Bobcat Stadium · Bozeman, Montana
FIRST ROUND
Fortera Stadium · Clarksville, Tennessee
SECOND ROUND
Winner of Austin Peay / Mercer DakotaDome · Vermillion, South Dakota
QUARTERFINAL Winners advance Projected matchup TBD
FIRST ROUND
Barker-Lane Stadium · Buies Creek, North Carolina
SECOND ROUND
Winner of Campbell / Richmond Stambaugh Stadium · Youngstown, Ohio
FIRST ROUND
Houck Field · Cape Girardeau, MO
SECOND ROUND
Winner of Illinois State / Southeast Missouri State Alerus Center · Grand Forks, North Dakota
QUARTERFINAL Winners advance Projected matchup TBD
FIRST ROUND
Tucker Stadium · Cookeville, Tennessee
SECOND ROUND
Winner of Tennessee Tech / Princeton Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium · Brookings, South Dakota
FIRST ROUND
Goodman Stadium · Bethlehem, Pennsylvania
SECOND ROUND
Winner of Lehigh / Marist Homer Bryce Stadium · Nacogdoches, Texas
QUARTERFINAL Winners advance Projected matchup TBD
FIRST ROUND
Harvard Stadium · Cambridge, Massachusetts
SECOND ROUND
Winner of Harvard / Central Connecticut Walkup Skydome · Flagstaff, Arizona
FIRST ROUND
Washington-Grizzly Stadium · Missoula, Montana
SECOND ROUND
Winner of Montana / East Tennessee State Memorial Stadium · Stephenville, Texas
QUARTERFINAL Winners advance Projected matchup TBD
THE SELECTION BOARD

Projected Top 16 Seeds

Seed anchors 1–10 follow the October 20 committee ranking; 11–16 are Inside the Pack estimates.

1 Montana State At Large 6–1
Defending champion, FBS victory, two wins against FCS opponents above the quality threshold; committee No. 1.
2 Tarleton State UAC 7–0
Undefeated against its completed schedule, including an FBS win; UAC co-leader selection remains a tied-race editorial assumption.
3 Youngstown State MVFC 6–2
6-2 Division I, two quality FCS wins and MVFC's unique current conference-percentage leader.
4 Stephen F. Austin Southland 6–0
Undefeated in completed D-I play and Southland's unique current leader; opponent-strength caution remains.
5 South Dakota State At Large 5–2
Strength of schedule and high-quality FCS wins support an at-large and top-eight placement despite two losses.
6 North Dakota At Large 6–2
Committee No. 6 with multiple quality wins and a difficult MVFC schedule.
7 Northern Arizona Big Sky 6–2
6-2 against D-I and two strong wins; Big Sky tie with Weber unresolved, AQ choice is conditional.
8 South Dakota At Large 6–2
6-2 D-I and placed eighth in committee's Oct. 20 ranking; second-round bye is provisional.
9 Austin Peay At Large 6–2
6-2 D-I with a strong win and top-ten committee standing; UAC at-large under the Tarleton AQ branch.
10 Harvard Ivy 5–0
5-0 D-I, two quality wins and official committee No. 10; Ivy head-to-head with Princeton not completed.
11 Illinois State At Large 4–2
One FBS win and strong committee honorable-mention status; selection does not rely on lower-division wins as D-I wins.
12 Tennessee Tech At Large 6–1
6-1 D-I, three qualifying FCS wins; SoCon at-large if ETSU gets the provisional AQ.
13 Lehigh Patriot 6–1
6-1 D-I and unique current Patriot conference leader; offensive schedule context still pending.
14 Campbell CAA 6–1
6-1 D-I, undefeated in completed CAA league games; CAA three-way tie is not officially decided.
15 Montana At Large 5–3
5-3 D-I and independent Oct. 19 poll support; difficult schedule offsets, but does not erase, losses.
16 Lamar At Large 5–2
5-2 D-I and independent poll support; Southland runner-up résumé under Stephen F. Austin branch.
REST OF THE MOCK FIELD

Unseeded Selections

Central Connecticut NEC
NEC 2-0 current co-leader; league's other leader LIU remains an alternative; neither has secured the bid.
East Tennessee State SoCon
Unique current SoCon percentage leader; conditional AQ, not an awarded NCAA berth.
Marist Pioneer
3-0 completed Pioneer conference slate and league's unique current percentage leader; under .500 in some other context.
Mercer At Large
6-2 D-I and evidence of a competitive SoCon at-large résumé.
Monmouth At Large
5-2 D-I, 4-0 completed CAA league play and stronger measured league-opponent context than some other CAA co-leaders.
Princeton At Large
4-1 D-I and two quality FCS wins, with a stronger average opponent résumé than several conventional bubble teams.
Richmond At Large
5-2 D-I, Patriot contender; independently present in late-October FCS polls.
Southeast Missouri State OVC
4-3 D-I and OVC current co-leader; full 2026 OVC fallback metrics have not resolved this tie.
CONFERENCE RACES

Still in the AQ Hunt

Unselected current co-leaders; no berth has been awarded. “AQ-dependent” describes today’s résumé, not postseason ineligibility.

Weber State AQ / Bubble Big Sky 5–3
Tied for the current Big Sky lead with Northern Arizona among others. An at-large argument may remain, separate from the AQ route. Eligibility and remaining tiebreak steps are not individually verified.
Bryant AQ / Bubble CAA 5–2
Tied for the current CAA lead with Campbell among others. An at-large argument may remain, separate from the AQ route. Eligibility and remaining tiebreak steps are not individually verified.
Long Island University AQ-dependent NEC 3–5
Tied for the current NEC lead with Central Connecticut among others. The AQ route appears especially important given the current Division I record. Eligibility and remaining tiebreak steps are not individually verified.
UT Martin AQ-dependent OVC 3–4
Tied for the current OVC lead with Southeast Missouri State among others. The AQ route appears especially important given the current Division I record. Eligibility and remaining tiebreak steps are not individually verified.
Abilene Christian AQ-dependent UAC 4–4
Tied for the current UAC lead with Tarleton State among others. The AQ route appears especially important given the current Division I record. Eligibility and remaining tiebreak steps are not individually verified.
OUTSIDE THE PROJECTED FIELD

Bubble Watch

UC Davis 4–3 D-I
4-3 D-I, meaningful poll support, but fewer quality wins than some selected at-large teams.
Northern Iowa 3–3 D-I
3-3 D-I and two quality FCS victories; record limits current at-large case.
Weber State 5–3 D-I
Big Sky AQ co-leader with Northern Arizona; alternate AQ branch could displace another participant.
Bryant 5–2 D-I
CAA co-leader at 3-0 conference; alternate AQ branch could displace Campbell.
Jackson State 4–1 D-I
4-1 D-I plus SWAC résumé; NCAA at-large eligibility is not blanket denied, but SWAC championship and Celebration Bowl availability need team-specific confirmation.
Columbia 4–1 D-I
4-1 D-I and quality evidence; fourth-Ivy-team overprediction from old model is rejected.
SE Louisiana 4–3 D-I
4-3 D-I and one FBS win; bubble comparison must distinguish weaker losses.
Abilene Christian 4–4 D-I
3-0 league record under UAC co-leader tie, but 4-4 D-I overall; AQ alternate to Tarleton.

AQ hunt and bubble watch can overlap. The bubble is unranked; MEAC/SWAC teams are not presumed ineligible.

THE ROAD TO SELECTION SUNDAY

Games That Matter

Upcoming matchups with significant potential résumé or AQ implications. Archived Oct. 21 schedule, not live scores.
Sat, Oct 24 · 1:00 PM CTMARQUEE SEED / RÉSUMÉ
North Dakota South Dakota
Résumé stakes viewed from South Dakota’s perspective

With a win Beating committee No. 6 North Dakota (6-2 D-I, 2 strong-opponent FCS wins) at home would add a marquee quality win. It would protect home-field résumé credibility and add a quality win. It also helps the conference record, though the quality of the opponent is the more distinctive résumé factor here. With South Dakota anchored at seed No. 8 in this mock, it could strengthen the case to retain a top-eight bye.

With a loss A loss against committee No. 6 is more defensible than a loss to a weak opponent, but costs a direct opportunity to strengthen the seeded résumé. For a current top-eight team like South Dakota, the bye/seed position could come under greater scrutiny.

ESPN game details ↗
Sat, Oct 24 · 2:00 PM CTAQ + MARQUEE SEED / RÉSUMÉ
Princeton Harvard
Résumé stakes viewed from Princeton’s perspective

With a win Beating committee No. 10 Harvard (5-0 D-I, 2 strong-opponent FCS wins) on the road would add a marquee quality win. A road win would add a particularly useful away-site result. This is also a head-to-head chance against a current conference co-leader, relevant to the provisional AQ race. That would be important evidence for an at-large selection or a possible seed.

With a loss A loss against committee No. 10 is more defensible than a loss to a weak opponent, but costs a direct opportunity to strengthen the seeded résumé. Losing head-to-head to a current conference leader could weaken the AQ path, subject to unresolved league tiebreak steps. The team would have one fewer marquee-win chance to distinguish its at-large case.

ESPN game details ↗
Sat, Oct 24 · 2:30 PM CTMARQUEE SEED / RÉSUMÉ
Weber State Montana State
Résumé stakes viewed from Weber State’s perspective

With a win Beating committee No. 1 Montana State (6-1 D-I, 2 strong-opponent FCS wins) on the road would add a marquee quality win. A road win would add a particularly useful away-site result. It also helps the conference record, though the quality of the opponent is the more distinctive résumé factor here. That would be important evidence for an at-large selection or a possible seed.

With a loss A loss against committee No. 1 is more defensible than a loss to a weak opponent, but costs a direct opportunity to strengthen the seeded résumé. The team would have one fewer marquee-win chance to distinguish its at-large case.

ESPN game details ↗
Sat, Oct 24 · 5:00 PM CTAQ + MARQUEE SEED / RÉSUMÉ
SE Louisiana Stephen F. Austin
Résumé stakes viewed from SE Louisiana’s perspective

With a win Beating committee No. 4 Stephen F. Austin (6-0 D-I) on the road would add a marquee quality win. A road win would add a particularly useful away-site result. This is also a head-to-head chance against a current conference co-leader, relevant to the provisional AQ race. That would be important evidence for an at-large selection or a possible seed.

With a loss A loss against committee No. 4 is more defensible than a loss to a weak opponent, but costs a direct opportunity to strengthen the seeded résumé. Losing head-to-head to a current conference leader could weaken the AQ path, subject to unresolved league tiebreak steps. The team would have one fewer marquee-win chance to distinguish its at-large case.

ESPN game details ↗
Sat, Oct 31 · 11:00 AM CTAQ + MARQUEE SEED / RÉSUMÉ
North Dakota Youngstown State
Résumé stakes viewed from North Dakota’s perspective

With a win Beating committee No. 3 Youngstown State (6-2 D-I, 2 strong-opponent FCS wins) on the road would add a marquee quality win. A road win would add a particularly useful away-site result. This is also a head-to-head chance against a current conference co-leader, relevant to the provisional AQ race. With North Dakota anchored at seed No. 6 in this mock, it could strengthen the case to retain a top-eight bye.

With a loss A loss against committee No. 3 is more defensible than a loss to a weak opponent, but costs a direct opportunity to strengthen the seeded résumé. Losing head-to-head to a current conference leader could weaken the AQ path, subject to unresolved league tiebreak steps. For a current top-eight team like North Dakota, the bye/seed position could come under greater scrutiny.

ESPN game details ↗
Sat, Oct 31 · 12:00 PM CTAQ + QUALITY-WIN OPPORTUNITY
Bryant Monmouth
Résumé stakes viewed from Bryant’s perspective

With a win Defeating Monmouth (5-2 D-I, 1 strong-opponent FCS win) on the road would add a result against a winning D-I opponent with proven strong-opponent FCS victories. A road win would add a particularly useful away-site result. This is also a head-to-head chance against a current conference co-leader, relevant to the provisional AQ race.

With a loss A loss removes a useful quality-win opportunity; selection and seeding would hinge more heavily on other completed results. Losing head-to-head to a current conference leader could weaken the AQ path, subject to unresolved league tiebreak steps.

ESPN game details ↗
Sat, Oct 31 · 3:00 PM CTMARQUEE SEED / RÉSUMÉ
South Dakota South Dakota State
Résumé stakes viewed from South Dakota’s perspective

With a win Beating committee No. 5 South Dakota State (5-2 D-I, 2 strong-opponent FCS wins) on the road would add a marquee quality win. A road win would add a particularly useful away-site result. It also helps the conference record, though the quality of the opponent is the more distinctive résumé factor here. With South Dakota anchored at seed No. 8 in this mock, it could strengthen the case to retain a top-eight bye.

With a loss A loss against committee No. 5 is more defensible than a loss to a weak opponent, but costs a direct opportunity to strengthen the seeded résumé. For a current top-eight team like South Dakota, the bye/seed position could come under greater scrutiny.

ESPN game details ↗
Sat, Nov 7 · 6:00 PM CTAQ + MARQUEE SEED / RÉSUMÉ
Abilene Christian Tarleton State
Résumé stakes viewed from Abilene Christian’s perspective

With a win Beating committee No. 2 Tarleton State (7-0 D-I, 1 strong-opponent FCS win) on the road would add a marquee quality win. A road win would add a particularly useful away-site result. This is also a head-to-head chance against a current conference co-leader, relevant to the provisional AQ race. That would be important evidence for an at-large selection or a possible seed.

With a loss A loss against committee No. 2 is more defensible than a loss to a weak opponent, but costs a direct opportunity to strengthen the seeded résumé. Losing head-to-head to a current conference leader could weaken the AQ path, subject to unresolved league tiebreak steps. The team would have one fewer marquee-win chance to distinguish its at-large case.

ESPN game details ↗

These are editorial game-impact selections based on completed-game context, not simulated future results or a claim that any team has clinched a bid. Dates and kickoff details may change.

THE COMMITTEE’S TOUGHEST CALLS

The Selection Room

Three illustrative at-large résumé contrasts, not a ranked first-out list or a formal NCAA committee comparison.
IN THE FIELD vs. ON THE BUBBLE
Same-conference tradeoff
Why this comparison matters

Illinois State has the stronger completed D-I record, while Northern Iowa has more victories over qualifying strong FCS opponents. This is a résumé tradeoff, not evidence that the bubble order is settled.

IN THE FIELD vs. ON THE BUBBLE
Record versus standout wins
Why this comparison matters

Lamar has the stronger D-I record; Southeastern Louisiana has more qualifying strong-FCS wins and a completed FBS victory. Their records tell different parts of the at-large story.

IN THE FIELD vs. ON THE BUBBLE
CAA résumé and AQ uncertainty
Why this comparison matters

Both have the same completed D-I record and the same number of qualifying strong-FCS wins. Their unresolved conference AQ paths and remaining games matter; these totals alone do not break the tie.

Quality-win counts use the same October 21 completed-game definition as the public résumé board. These examples illuminate tradeoffs; they do not re-rank teams, settle tied AQs, or certify postseason eligibility.

INSIDE THE PACK • TEAM RESUME

Archived scheduled games (weeks 8–13), not a live schedule. Times shown in Central Time; kickoff details may change.

Remaining games & what matters

Key games are résumé-stakes judgments using the October 20 committee top ten, provisional seeds, quality wins, opponent record, home/road context and potential AQ impact. The actual committee has not assigned future win/loss probabilities or certified later seed changes.

Unofficial Inside the Pack editorial mock. All AQ bids, seeds, pairings and sites are provisional; six league AQ ties and postseason availability questions remain. This edition uses completed games through October 21, 2026.

Matchup forecasts are experimental, not committee inputs or projected final scores. Hosts and stadiums are illustrative, not NCAA hosting awards. No first-round winners are assumed in conditional second-round previews.